Week 4 of the college football season is set to kick off and there are two matchups inside of the top-25 to keep an eye on. Those matchups both come from inside the SEC.
The first matchup at 3:30 p.m. EST is between the #20 Florida Gators and #11 Tennessee Volunteers from Knoxville.
Then at 7:30 p.m. EST, the #10 Arkansas Razorbacks will head to Dallas to take on the Texas AM Aggies from ATT Stadium.
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Right off the bat, although both the Volunteers and Aggies are favored to win their games, most of the action has been coming on the underdogs to cover the spread.
Starting with the matchup between the Gators and Volunteers, Tennessee is going into the game as a massive 10.5-point favorite.
#11 Tennessee Vs. #20 Florida Gators
• Moneyline: Tennessee (-400) vs. Florida ( 300)
• Spread: Tennessee -10.5
• Total: 62 Points
As mentioned before, Tennessee is the favorite, but the action is being split between the two teams on both the moneyline and the spread. The Gators are taking in the majority of bets on the spread at 57% and for good reason being that they have the previous performances to back them up. They defeated #7 Utah in Week 1, lost by 10 to #20 Kentucky in Week 2, and squeaked by South Florida by 3 points in Week 3.
As for the moneyline, it tells a different story as Tennessee is dominating the action with 76% of total bets to win the game. This action hasn’t gone unnoticed from the oddsmakers as Tennessee originally opened as a -180 favorite and has seen their odds shift heavily to -400. The Volunteers are undefeated so far on the season at 3-0 including two home games where they won each by 45 points a piece.
Moving on to the matchup between Arkansas and Texas AM, the Razorbacks are going in as the underdog despite being undefeated and the higher-ranked team.
#10 Arkansas Vs. #23 Texas AM
• Moneyline: Texas AM (-130) vs. Arkansas ( 110)
• Spread: Texas AM -2
• Total: 48 Points
The odds here aren’t fooling anyone as Arkansas has clearly been a stronger team in the first three weeks and the public has not forgotten that. They are seeing 77% of bets on their 115 moneyline odds and 57% of bets to cover 2.5 points on the spread.
Arkansas has taken down some quality opponents to defend their action on both the moneyline and spread in #23 Cincinnati and South Carolina. As for the Aggies, they took down Sam Houston 31-0, lost to an unranked Appalachian State at home, and then defeated #13 Miami last week.
The fact that this game is technically in a neutral site feeds into the Razorbacks covering even more as they have gone 3-3 against the spread in their last six neutral site games since 2017 and have won those games by an average of 8 points.
First road game of the year on deck.#GoGators | #jOURney pic.twitter.com/Wjnmg4IyLa
— Florida Gators Football (@GatorsFB) September 19, 2022
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The Handicapper911 simulation model, which simulates every college football game thousands’ of times, is up +47.65 units over the last three years. We have released 520 total games with 284 WINS and 236 losses ATS for a win % of 54.62%. A $100 bettor of our NCAAF would have netted a profit of $4,765 and, a $1,000 bettor would have won $47,650 just on college football. We have released only a small number of NCAAF games so far this season.
| Title: NCAAF Week 4 Betting: Top 25 Public Betting Splits
| Author: Sam Profeta
| Date: Sep 22, 2022
