Fading the public is a statement you have likely heard before. NFL bettors sometimes use this approach based on the assumption and studies that the house usually wins and that the casual bettors often make incorrect and emotional predictions.
Last week, the public went 2-2-1 in the top five plays I wrote about. What will happen this week, and will you be fading or following?
Click the image for live odds
Here are the most public picks for Week 9:
Saints -8.5 over Bears @ 1 pm ET Sunday
The New Orleans Saints have dropped four of their last six games outright, but most bettors like them to roll over the Bears this weekend. Chicago will be starting rookie Tyson Bagent for the third game in a row and is coming off a 30-13 Sunday night loss to the Chargers.
Both Chicago and New Orleans are 2-5-1 ATS this season. The Saints have also dropped their last five home games against the number.
Browns -8 against the Cardinals @ 1 pm ET Sunday
P.J. Walker could be in line to make another start at quarterback because Deshaun Watson is still unsure if he’ll be ready to play against Arizona. Walker has thrown only one touchdown against five interceptions and has a dreadful 22.7 QBR. The Browns are still large favorites here, coming in with a 3-0 straight-up and against-the-spread record at home this season. It is also hard to love the 1-7 Cardinals, but there is a chance that Kyler Murray could be back; if not, it will be rookie fifth-round pick Clayton Tune making his first career start at quarterback.
- Total: u38 -110 Browns vs Cardinals o38 -110
- Money Line: -610 Browns vs Cardinals +460
- Watch: CBS / Nov 5th, Cleveland Browns Stadium, 12:00 PM CST
- QB: J. Dobbs vs D. Watson
Over 47 Cowboys vs Eagles @ 4:25 pm ET-Sunday
The over has been a very trendy play in this NFC East showdown. Based on recent history, the love for the over makes sense. The over has cashed in the last five head-to-head meetings between the Cowboys and Eagles.
A strong case can also be made to fade the public and take the under here. Philadelphia does come in first in rushing yards allowed, and the Cowboys have the fourth-rated pass defense in the NFL.
| Betting Consensus | ||
|---|---|---|
 |
Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles total o47-110 being hammered by 78.6% of the betting public.. |  |
Over 49.5 Bills vs Bengals 8:20 pm ET on Sunday
Another total getting a lot of love is in the Bills and Bengals game, which has steamed up from 47 to 49.5. Interestingly, both teams have a 3-4 o/u record this season. Buffalo has dropped its last four games against the spread, and three of their previous four games have gone under. Cincinnati has covered the spread in its last three games, but the over is just 2-3 in their previous five games.
Sunday Night Stripes. pic.twitter.com/F3yrzhzeXu
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) November 4, 2023
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| Title: NFL Week 9 Public Betting Preview (To Fade or Follow?)
| Author: David Marotta
| Date: Nov 4h, 2023
